A hand kids past a misplaced believer.
A comet that has delighted backyard astronomers in recent weeks after an unexpected eruption has now grown larger than the sun.
The sun remains by far the most massive object in the solar system, with an extended influence of particles that reaches all the planets. But the comparatively tiny Comet Holmes has released so much gas and dust that its extended atmosphere, or coma, is larger than the diameter of the sun. The comparison is clear in a new image.
"It continues to expand and is now the largest single object in the solar system," according to astronomers at the University of Hawaii.
The coma's diameter on Nov. 9 was 869,900 miles (1.4 million kilometers), based on measurements by Rachel Stevenson, Jan Kleyna and Pedro Lacerda of the University of Hawaii Institute for Astronomy. They used observations from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. The sun's diameter, stated differently by various sources and usually rounded to the nearest 100, is about 864,900 miles (1.392 million kilometers).
Separately, a new Hubble Space Telescope photo of the comet reveals an intriguing bow-tie structure around its nucleus.
The comet's coma—mostly microscopic particles—shines by reflecting sunlight.
See for yourself
Holmes is still visible to the naked eye as a fuzzy star anytime after dark, high in the northeast sky. You can find it by using this sky map. It is faintly visible from cities, and from dark country locations is truly remarkable.
"Right now, in a dark sky it appears as a very noticeable circular cloud," said Joe Rao, SPACE.com's Skywatching Columnist. Rao advises looking for the comet this weekend, before the moon becomes more of a factor. The comet will likely diminish in brightness yet remain visible for the next two to three weeks, he said.
"Over the next few weeks and months, the coma and tail are expected to expand even more while the comet will fade as the dust disperses," Stevenson and her colleagues write.
On Monday, Nov. 19, the comet will create a unique skywatching event with its see-through coma, according to the Web site Spaceweather.com: "The comet will glide by the star Mirfak [also called Alpha Persei] and appear to swallow it—a sight not to be missed."
A small telescope will reveal the fuzzy coma. Lacking a long tail characteristic of some great comets, however, Holmes is not the most dramatic object in the sky for casual observers.
Mystery outburst
Nobody knows why Holmes erupted, but it underwent a similar explosive brightening in 1892. The recent display, which began Oct. 24, brought the comet from visual obscurity to being one of the brighter objects in the night sky. It has since dimmed somewhat as the material races outward from the nucleus at roughly 1,100 mph (0.5 km/sec).
The Hawaiian astronomy team writes in a press statement: "This amazing eruption of the comet is produced by dust ejected from a tiny solid nucleus made of ice and rock, only 3.6 kilometers (roughly 2.2 miles) in diameter."
The new image from the Hawaiian observatory also shows a modest tail forming to one side, now just a fuzzy region to the lower-right. That's caused by the pressure of sunlight pushing on the gas and dust of the coma.
But the comet is so far away—149 million miles (240 million kilometers), or about 1.6 times the distance from Earth to the sun—that even Hubble can't resolve its nucleus.
The offset nature of the coma, seen in ground-based images, suggests "a large fragment broke off and subsequently disintegrated into tiny dust particles after moving away from the main nucleus," Hubble astronomers said in a statement today. The comet's distance, plus all the dust, prevent Hubble from seeing any fragments, however.
Friday, November 16, 2007
BARRY BONDS DONE 11-16-07
Barry Bonds is effectively suspended. And Bud Selig didn't have to do a thing.
Rosenthal on Bonds' indictmentFOXSports.com's senior baseball writer Ken Rosenthal weighs in on Barry Bonds' indictment. Hear what may be in store for MLB's home run king.No team will sign Bonds as a free agent now that he has been indicted for perjury and obstruction of justice by the federal government.
If any club was even considering Bonds it will quickly abandon the idea, knowing his availability would be in question, his presence a crippling distraction and marketing nightmare.
It's over, folks — Bonds' playing career, and maybe any chance for him to reclaim his name.
Bonds, 43, could play again if he is found not guilty, but by then who knows what kind of condition he might be in? And who knows if any team would still want him?
For baseball, the only negative is that the indictment didn't come last off-season, before Bonds broke Hank Aaron's all-time home-run record. Bonds was also a free agent then, and the Giants re-signed him for one more season — a business decision they surely would not have made under the present circumstances.
Finally, Bonds is in a corner.
If he is found guilty, he can forget about the Hall of Fame, which instructs voters to consider character, integrity and sportsmanship, subjective standards that surely would be influenced by jail time.
Even if Bonds is found not guilty, his image is almost certain to take another severe hit. More incriminating evidence against him will surface if the case goes to trial — and rest assured, neither side is in the mood for a plea bargain.
For years Bonds' supporters defended him — with some justification — by saying that he committed no crime and never tested positive for steroids.
Both premises are about to be challenged. The indictment alleges that Bonds tested positive for steroids in November of 2000, three years before Major League Baseball began its testing program. The test might have come from the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO). Bonds was a BALCO client.
To convict Bonds, the government must demonstrate that he lied to a grand jury investigating BALCO when he said he never knowingly used performance-enhancing drugs. The author of Game of Shadows made that argument rather convincingly, though not in a court of law.
Which isn't to say that Bonds will be found guilty.
Perjury is difficult to prove beyond a reasonable doubt, and Bonds' lawyers will fight the government at every turn. The only way Bonds can become a sympathetic figure is if it appears he is being persecuted. Bonds' lead attorney, Michael Rains, already is playing that angle.
Judging from Rains' past comments and post-indictment news conference, his strategy could turn into as much of an attack on the prosecutors' conduct as their case. Rains kicked off the battle for public opinion Thursday night by criticizing prosecutors for releasing the indictment to the media before informing Bonds and his defense team.
"Now that their biased allegations must finally be presented openly in a court of law, they won't be able to hide their unethical misconduct from the public any longer," Rains said in a prepared statement. "You won't read about those facts in this indictment, but now the public will get the whole truth, not just selectively leaked fabrications from anonymous sources."
Perhaps, but the stakes are high for the government in any high-profile case. After taking nearly four years to prepare an indictment, the prosecutors would look incredibly foolish if they stumbled at trial. They might not get a conviction, but it's doubtful they will present a slipshod case.
One way or another, Bonds is fighting a losing battle. Even if he escapes relatively unscathed from a legal perspective, his standing with the public is so low that the majority of fans are unlikely to forgive him. Not that he seems to care.
No, he won't recover like Martha Stewart, who agreed to a five-month prison term when confronted with similar charges. Stewart went to jail and 2½ years later, she is again a popular homemaking expert, having revived her business empire seemingly overnight.
Bonds, thanks to his surly personality, has built no such empire, even though he was the Michael Jordan of his sport. Fans wonder if a conviction would result in Selig placing an asterisk next to his records, but there would be no need. Bonds is a walking asterisk, a constant reminder of an unseemly era.
Rosenthal on Bonds' indictmentFOXSports.com's senior baseball writer Ken Rosenthal weighs in on Barry Bonds' indictment. Hear what may be in store for MLB's home run king.No team will sign Bonds as a free agent now that he has been indicted for perjury and obstruction of justice by the federal government.
If any club was even considering Bonds it will quickly abandon the idea, knowing his availability would be in question, his presence a crippling distraction and marketing nightmare.
It's over, folks — Bonds' playing career, and maybe any chance for him to reclaim his name.
Bonds, 43, could play again if he is found not guilty, but by then who knows what kind of condition he might be in? And who knows if any team would still want him?
For baseball, the only negative is that the indictment didn't come last off-season, before Bonds broke Hank Aaron's all-time home-run record. Bonds was also a free agent then, and the Giants re-signed him for one more season — a business decision they surely would not have made under the present circumstances.
Finally, Bonds is in a corner.
If he is found guilty, he can forget about the Hall of Fame, which instructs voters to consider character, integrity and sportsmanship, subjective standards that surely would be influenced by jail time.
Even if Bonds is found not guilty, his image is almost certain to take another severe hit. More incriminating evidence against him will surface if the case goes to trial — and rest assured, neither side is in the mood for a plea bargain.
For years Bonds' supporters defended him — with some justification — by saying that he committed no crime and never tested positive for steroids.
Both premises are about to be challenged. The indictment alleges that Bonds tested positive for steroids in November of 2000, three years before Major League Baseball began its testing program. The test might have come from the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO). Bonds was a BALCO client.
To convict Bonds, the government must demonstrate that he lied to a grand jury investigating BALCO when he said he never knowingly used performance-enhancing drugs. The author of Game of Shadows made that argument rather convincingly, though not in a court of law.
Which isn't to say that Bonds will be found guilty.
Perjury is difficult to prove beyond a reasonable doubt, and Bonds' lawyers will fight the government at every turn. The only way Bonds can become a sympathetic figure is if it appears he is being persecuted. Bonds' lead attorney, Michael Rains, already is playing that angle.
Judging from Rains' past comments and post-indictment news conference, his strategy could turn into as much of an attack on the prosecutors' conduct as their case. Rains kicked off the battle for public opinion Thursday night by criticizing prosecutors for releasing the indictment to the media before informing Bonds and his defense team.
"Now that their biased allegations must finally be presented openly in a court of law, they won't be able to hide their unethical misconduct from the public any longer," Rains said in a prepared statement. "You won't read about those facts in this indictment, but now the public will get the whole truth, not just selectively leaked fabrications from anonymous sources."
Perhaps, but the stakes are high for the government in any high-profile case. After taking nearly four years to prepare an indictment, the prosecutors would look incredibly foolish if they stumbled at trial. They might not get a conviction, but it's doubtful they will present a slipshod case.
One way or another, Bonds is fighting a losing battle. Even if he escapes relatively unscathed from a legal perspective, his standing with the public is so low that the majority of fans are unlikely to forgive him. Not that he seems to care.
No, he won't recover like Martha Stewart, who agreed to a five-month prison term when confronted with similar charges. Stewart went to jail and 2½ years later, she is again a popular homemaking expert, having revived her business empire seemingly overnight.
Bonds, thanks to his surly personality, has built no such empire, even though he was the Michael Jordan of his sport. Fans wonder if a conviction would result in Selig placing an asterisk next to his records, but there would be no need. Bonds is a walking asterisk, a constant reminder of an unseemly era.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
BAD TEETH 10-31-07
Halloween recall: Beware of fake teeth
Chinese-made ‘Ugly Teeth,’ sold by the tens of thousands, contain lead
Recall information
Are your kids' toys safe?
To find out if a product you own has been recalled, you can try searching the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s database.
Concerned parents and caregivers also can sign up to received an e-mail alert when a new product recall is made public.
To find out if a toy you own was part of the Mattel recall, and get information about obtaining a voucher for the cost of the product.
WASHINGTON - The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced an 11th-hour recall Wednesday to warn consumers that fake Halloween teeth sold by the tens of thousands since last year contain excessive amounts of lead.
The $2 packages of "Ugly Teeth" are only the latest in a long line of Chinese-made toys and novelty items recalled because of lead. The CPSC announced the recall on Halloween, in a late-morning news release.
Since January 2006, the CPSC estimates retailers nationwide have sold about 43,000 eight-piece packages of the party favors. There were no immediate reports of injuries or illness.
Chinese-made ‘Ugly Teeth,’ sold by the tens of thousands, contain lead
Recall information
Are your kids' toys safe?
To find out if a product you own has been recalled, you can try searching the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s database.
Concerned parents and caregivers also can sign up to received an e-mail alert when a new product recall is made public.
To find out if a toy you own was part of the Mattel recall, and get information about obtaining a voucher for the cost of the product.
WASHINGTON - The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced an 11th-hour recall Wednesday to warn consumers that fake Halloween teeth sold by the tens of thousands since last year contain excessive amounts of lead.
The $2 packages of "Ugly Teeth" are only the latest in a long line of Chinese-made toys and novelty items recalled because of lead. The CPSC announced the recall on Halloween, in a late-morning news release.
Since January 2006, the CPSC estimates retailers nationwide have sold about 43,000 eight-piece packages of the party favors. There were no immediate reports of injuries or illness.
PIRATES 10-31-07
NAIROBI, Kenya - U.S. sailors boarded a North Korean-flagged vessel to help crew members wounded in a battle with pirates off the coast of Somalia, the Navy said Wednesday. American ships were also tracking a hijacked Japanese tanker in Somali waters after sinking two pirate skiffs tied to it.
With permission from the North Koreans, the Navy boarded the ship with a small team of medics, security personnel and an interpreter, the military said. The Koreans already had regained control of the vessel and detained all pirates.
The Navy medics treated three pirates and three Korean sailors for gunshot wounds. Another pirate was dead. The Korean sailors were taken aboard the American destroyer and treated there for two hours before returning to their ship. The pirates remain detained on the Korean vessel.
A helicopter had flown from the destroyer USS James E. Williams on Tuesday to investigate a phoned-in tip of a hijacked ship and demanded by radio that the pirates give up their weapons, the military said in a statement. The crew of the Dai Hong Dan then overwhelmed the hijackers.
The ship had departed from Mogadishu, where it made a delivery of sugar, said Cyrus Mody, a senior analyst at the International Maritime Bureau in London.
The incident came as the U.S. and North Korea worked toward the disabling of the communist country's main nuclear complex by the end of the year, which would be the biggest step Pyongyang has taken yet toward dismantling its atomic weapons program.
A Navy spokeswoman, Lt. Jessica Gandy, said the American destroyer had not been shadowing the North Korean ship. She said it was not known what its cargo was.
Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said it was logical that the military would want to know "what is being transported on the high seas and who is out there operating and if they have nothing but the best intentions in mind."
On Sunday, coalition ships fired on and sank two pirate skiffs tied to the Japanese chemical tanker, the Golden Nori, said Cmdr. Lydia Robertson, the 5th Fleet spokesman. A Navy photo showed one of the skiffs burning after being hit by a gun aboard the USS Porter, a guided-missile destroyer. The Navy said U.S. ships were monitoring the tanker.
A Durval Shipping official in Tokyo said the tanker's 28 crew — two South Koreans, nine Filipinos including the ship's captain and 12 Myanmar citizens — had not been injured.
The captain called his family and told them that "the crew is safe, that they are being treated well, that they are in good physical condition," said Philippines Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Esteban Conejos.
The tanker was carrying four kinds of chemicals, including, highly flammable benzene, said the Durval official, who gave only his last name, Oka. He refused to say how much benzene the ship was carrying.
"We were aware of what was on the ship when we fired," Robertson said.
Conejos said the hijackers made no immediate demands. The Philippine government is closely coordinating efforts to win the release of the crew with the ship's owner, the Japanese government, international shipping authorities, he said.
"Because of a lack of central control, we have no (Somali) government to talk to ask for information. We have to get it ourselves," Conejos said.
The ship had loaded at several ports in Asia and was bound for Europe, with no plans to stop in Africa, said Mody, the International Maritime Bureau official.
"We were later informed by the coalition forces that the vessel was taken into Somali territorial waters," he said.
The IMB reported this month that pirate attacks worldwide jumped 14 percent in the first nine months of 2007, with the biggest increases in the poorly policed waters of Somalia and Nigeria. Reported attacks in Somali waters rose to 26, up from eight a year earlier, the bureau.
This is the third time Somali gunmen have been overpowered by mariners.
In 1989, crew members of the MV Alpha Mitchel managed to overpower their captors in Somalia waters. In 2004, six crew members of the MT Jenlil also managed to escape to Yemen after overpowering their captors in Somalia territorial waters.
With permission from the North Koreans, the Navy boarded the ship with a small team of medics, security personnel and an interpreter, the military said. The Koreans already had regained control of the vessel and detained all pirates.
The Navy medics treated three pirates and three Korean sailors for gunshot wounds. Another pirate was dead. The Korean sailors were taken aboard the American destroyer and treated there for two hours before returning to their ship. The pirates remain detained on the Korean vessel.
A helicopter had flown from the destroyer USS James E. Williams on Tuesday to investigate a phoned-in tip of a hijacked ship and demanded by radio that the pirates give up their weapons, the military said in a statement. The crew of the Dai Hong Dan then overwhelmed the hijackers.
The ship had departed from Mogadishu, where it made a delivery of sugar, said Cyrus Mody, a senior analyst at the International Maritime Bureau in London.
The incident came as the U.S. and North Korea worked toward the disabling of the communist country's main nuclear complex by the end of the year, which would be the biggest step Pyongyang has taken yet toward dismantling its atomic weapons program.
A Navy spokeswoman, Lt. Jessica Gandy, said the American destroyer had not been shadowing the North Korean ship. She said it was not known what its cargo was.
Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said it was logical that the military would want to know "what is being transported on the high seas and who is out there operating and if they have nothing but the best intentions in mind."
On Sunday, coalition ships fired on and sank two pirate skiffs tied to the Japanese chemical tanker, the Golden Nori, said Cmdr. Lydia Robertson, the 5th Fleet spokesman. A Navy photo showed one of the skiffs burning after being hit by a gun aboard the USS Porter, a guided-missile destroyer. The Navy said U.S. ships were monitoring the tanker.
A Durval Shipping official in Tokyo said the tanker's 28 crew — two South Koreans, nine Filipinos including the ship's captain and 12 Myanmar citizens — had not been injured.
The captain called his family and told them that "the crew is safe, that they are being treated well, that they are in good physical condition," said Philippines Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Esteban Conejos.
The tanker was carrying four kinds of chemicals, including, highly flammable benzene, said the Durval official, who gave only his last name, Oka. He refused to say how much benzene the ship was carrying.
"We were aware of what was on the ship when we fired," Robertson said.
Conejos said the hijackers made no immediate demands. The Philippine government is closely coordinating efforts to win the release of the crew with the ship's owner, the Japanese government, international shipping authorities, he said.
"Because of a lack of central control, we have no (Somali) government to talk to ask for information. We have to get it ourselves," Conejos said.
The ship had loaded at several ports in Asia and was bound for Europe, with no plans to stop in Africa, said Mody, the International Maritime Bureau official.
"We were later informed by the coalition forces that the vessel was taken into Somali territorial waters," he said.
The IMB reported this month that pirate attacks worldwide jumped 14 percent in the first nine months of 2007, with the biggest increases in the poorly policed waters of Somalia and Nigeria. Reported attacks in Somali waters rose to 26, up from eight a year earlier, the bureau.
This is the third time Somali gunmen have been overpowered by mariners.
In 1989, crew members of the MV Alpha Mitchel managed to overpower their captors in Somalia waters. In 2004, six crew members of the MT Jenlil also managed to escape to Yemen after overpowering their captors in Somalia territorial waters.
BOY STARTS FIRE 10-31-07
LOS ANGELES - Officials blamed a wildfire that consumed more than 38,000 acres and destroyed 21 homes last week on a boy playing with matches, and said they would ask a prosecutor to consider the case.
The boy admitted to sparking the fire on Oct. 21, Los Angeles County sheriff's Sgt. Diane Hecht said Tuesday. Ferocious winds helped it quickly spread.
"He admitted to playing with matches and accidentally starting the fire," Hecht said in a statement.
Police did not release the boy's name. Los Angeles County fire Capt. Michael Brown only would say Wednesday that he was younger than 13.
The boy was released to his parents, and the case will be presented to the district attorney's office, Hecht said. It was not clear if he had been arrested or cited by detectives.
Arson investigators first talked to the boy's parents on Oct. 22 after determining the blaze began the day before in the back yard of their Agua Dulce home, Brown said.
The home was not damaged in the fire, Brown said.
Investigators initially considered a downed power line as the source of the fire, but never officially listed it as the cause.
The blaze, which spread quickly through the neighborhood, was among 15 or so major wildfires that destroyed some 2,100 homes and blackened 809 square miles from Los Angeles to the Mexican border last week. Seven deaths were blamed directly on the fires, six evacuees died of natural causes and one person died of a fall.
Authorities arrested five people for arson during that period, but none have been linked to any of the major blazes.
All but four of the blazes are now fully contained. Firefighters on Wednesday continued to cut lines around the remaining fires and kept a close eye on the weather.
Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department spokeswoman Deputy Maribel Rizo said prosecutors were yet to determine if the boy's parents would be held accountable for any financial losses caused by the fire. Rizo did not know when prosecutors would be given the case.
Forecasters have said moderate Santa Ana winds could pick up later in the week.
Investigators have blamed an arsonist for setting a destructive wildfire in Orange County that blackened 28,500 acres and destroyed 16 homes.
Authorities were seeking the driver of a white Ford F-150 pickup truck spotted in a canyon area around the time the fire broke out. They said they wanted to talk to the driver, but stopped short of calling the person a suspect.
Officials offered a $285,000 reward to anyone with information that will lead to an arrest and conviction.
The boy admitted to sparking the fire on Oct. 21, Los Angeles County sheriff's Sgt. Diane Hecht said Tuesday. Ferocious winds helped it quickly spread.
"He admitted to playing with matches and accidentally starting the fire," Hecht said in a statement.
Police did not release the boy's name. Los Angeles County fire Capt. Michael Brown only would say Wednesday that he was younger than 13.
The boy was released to his parents, and the case will be presented to the district attorney's office, Hecht said. It was not clear if he had been arrested or cited by detectives.
Arson investigators first talked to the boy's parents on Oct. 22 after determining the blaze began the day before in the back yard of their Agua Dulce home, Brown said.
The home was not damaged in the fire, Brown said.
Investigators initially considered a downed power line as the source of the fire, but never officially listed it as the cause.
The blaze, which spread quickly through the neighborhood, was among 15 or so major wildfires that destroyed some 2,100 homes and blackened 809 square miles from Los Angeles to the Mexican border last week. Seven deaths were blamed directly on the fires, six evacuees died of natural causes and one person died of a fall.
Authorities arrested five people for arson during that period, but none have been linked to any of the major blazes.
All but four of the blazes are now fully contained. Firefighters on Wednesday continued to cut lines around the remaining fires and kept a close eye on the weather.
Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department spokeswoman Deputy Maribel Rizo said prosecutors were yet to determine if the boy's parents would be held accountable for any financial losses caused by the fire. Rizo did not know when prosecutors would be given the case.
Forecasters have said moderate Santa Ana winds could pick up later in the week.
Investigators have blamed an arsonist for setting a destructive wildfire in Orange County that blackened 28,500 acres and destroyed 16 homes.
Authorities were seeking the driver of a white Ford F-150 pickup truck spotted in a canyon area around the time the fire broke out. They said they wanted to talk to the driver, but stopped short of calling the person a suspect.
Officials offered a $285,000 reward to anyone with information that will lead to an arrest and conviction.
HAPPY HALLOWEEN 10-31-07
Hey just wanted to say Happy Halloween to everone. So, Happy Halloween. Anyways, I hope everyone gets a chance to get out go trick or treating. No one is too old to do so. Its fun to dress up as someone or something other than yourself for a day. And best of all you get candy, lots and lots of candy. Just what this country needs is a day to make us all fatter. They better be passing out fat free candy or something other than candy, like stickers or better yet how about some money.
Ok, I am done rambling. Everybody have a safe and happy halloween and make sure none of your candy comes from China.
Ok, I am done rambling. Everybody have a safe and happy halloween and make sure none of your candy comes from China.
PORN WORTH WATCHING 10-31-07
Porn stocks worth, um, watching
In an industry that counts on impulse buys, video on demand and faster cell-phone Internet access should be a boon for publicly traded adult-entertainment companies.
Technology has made pornography easier to produce and to distribute. By some estimates, pornography accounts for 40% of all Internet traffic and pay-TV sales. But, for shareholders at least, technology has yet to make pornography wildly profitable.
Playboy Enterprises (PLA, news, msgs) has seen its share price fall by 30% since the start of 2004, compared with a 39% gain in the S&P 500 Index ($INX). New Frontier Media (NOOF, news, msgs), a Boulder, Colo., business that distributes pornographic videos, trades lower than it did three years ago. And a smaller video distributor in Europe called Private Media (PRVT, news, msgs) trades where it did at the beginning of 2004, while the Russell 2000 Index ($RUT.X) of small-cap stocks has advanced more than 45% in the same time frame.
There are lots of reasons why: low-cost, high-quality digital-video cameras that have enabled small private companies; technology-enabled piracy of costlier content; and the abundance of free porn on the Internet.
But new technology appears to offer new hope for porn profits. Innovations such as video on demand (VOD) and faster cell-phone Internet access mean consumers will be better able to get the kind of porn they want, when and where they want it. That should boost sales for the publicly traded adult-entertainment companies supplying these channels.
On demand in demand Playboy, New Frontier Media and other adult-video providers have sold pay-per-view content for years through cable and satellite partners such as Time Warner Cable (TWC, news, msgs), Comcast (CMCSA, news, msgs) and EchoStar Communications (DISH, news, msgs). But this delivery system has had one big shortcoming: Because specific content is pre-scheduled, it isn't always available when a user wants it.
B
ut video on demand solves the problem, and consumers have responded. As New Frontier Media delicately put it in a recent filing, "Instant start times assure that an impulse demand results in a transaction, whereas with pay-per-view, the scheduled start time may not be synchronized to a viewer's requirements."
Private Media's chief operating officer, Peter Cohen, says adult entertainment "is particularly an impulse buy. So the on-demand functionality of VOD suits our content very well."
The numbers are impressive. Pay-television revenue overall was up just 1% at New Frontier Media in the first quarter, but VOD revenue jumped 10%. In the second quarter, overall pay-TV revenue at the company fell 17%, but VOD revenue was up 18% at New Frontier's biggest cable partner, and VOD sales were up at all of its top 10 cable partners. At Playboy, revenue weakness at the magazine and in pay-per-view TV has been offset by strength in VOD sales.
VOD offers other distinct advantages for adult-entertainment providers. VOD broadcasts can't be copied, so piracy is reduced. Also, it's easier to track consumer interests and behaviors with VOD.
"You get better and more specific actionable data about what works, and we have been responding to that," Playboy Enterprises Chief Executive Christie Hefner said in a recent conference call.
Cable providers have been rolling out VOD in the U.S. for several years. However, it has reached less than half the households that will be able to get it, so there is plenty of room for growth. In Europe, the potential is even bigger because cable operators there have lagged on offering VOD. Now, a new technology making up for the shortfall should help adult-entertainment companies deliver porn to viewers in the VOD format: Internet protocol television, or IPTV.
Undressing Playboy's planPlayboy magazine is changing its digital business strategy and giving away more content online. The Wall Street Journal's Lee Hawkins explains why.
"Europe is projected to be the fastest-growing territory for this platform," Private Media's Cohen says. "Everybody has ramped up their activity with these new digital platforms. I think we will see it grow quite quickly now."
Multimedia Research estimates the number of IPTV subscribers in Europe will grow to more than 27 million by 2011 from about 4 million last year. To catch the trend, Private Media is busy forging alliances with the major telecom providers across Europe who are rolling out VOD. The company says it already has access to 75% to 100% of the current and prospective IPTV viewers in France and Germany.
Porn on the go I'm not sure I really get this one because the screens are so small, but more consumers are watching porn on mobile phones, especially in Europe, where carriers are more likely to offer it.
"It's highly, highly popular," says Tim Clausen, who heads the wireless division at Private Media, which is based in Barcelona, Spain. "People watch entire movies for an hour and a half on their mobile phone." He says revenue from cell-phone-based porn doubled last year to $2.8 million.
Juniper Research analyst Windsor Holden estimates consumers around the world will spend $1.8 billion on cell-phone porn this year. He thinks that will grow to $4 billion by 2012. Strategy Analytics, another research firm, forecasts the mobile-adult-services market will reach $5 billion worldwide by 2010. Holden chalks it up in part to the cell phone's "anytime, anywhere" availability.
"The mobile phone affords the user of mobile adult services the opportunity for privacy, which many users may find attractive," Holden says.
Private Media says its content is available to more than 745 million cell-phone users in 33 countries via 78 operators, and it expects big growth. "We think that wireless will be an explosive top-line revenue opportunity for the simple reason that the cell phone is the ubiquitous device in the world," Cohen says.
Consumers aren't just looking at pictures, watching video and downloading naughty ring tones or video games. "Adoption is really rising rapidly in Europe, and one of the key drivers is video chat," says Holden. Several services provide one-on-one video chat with models for $3 a minute, he says, and the average length of the chat is six to seven minutes.
Compared with Europe, U.S. demand has lagged because high-speed data connections aren't as prevalent and carriers are more reluctant to offer cell-phone porn. But Cohen thinks the rollout of faster data service in the U.S. and better age-verification systems will change that. "As those two obstacles get worked out, we see enormous upside," he says.
Internet imitators In the Internet space, adult-entertainment companies are busy copying successful mainstream models like the auction site eBay (EBAY, news, msgs), the virtual world Second Life and even the social-networking site MySpace.
Rick's Cabaret International (RICK, news, msgs), which owns and operates adult nightclubs, has set up NaughtyBids, the eBay of adult material. The Web site, however, brings in only a small portion of overall revenue. Instead, the company is growing by acquiring and opening more clubs.
Red Light Center, run by a company called Utherverse Digital, offers an adult version of Second Life, one of the popular Internet-based worlds in which people interact through virtual identities known as avatars.
Video on MSN Money
Undressing Playboy's planPlayboy magazine is changing its digital business strategy and giving away more content online. The Wall Street Journal's Lee Hawkins explains why.
Zivity lets models post their pictures and accept payments from users who like what they see. They can also chat with models in a format that resembles MySpace.
If these last two are commercial successes, I'd expect the public companies to make an acquisition or, more likely, roll out similar products. Indeed, Private Media says it plans to launch Internet community and interactive services in the next three to six months.
A caveat With the exception of Playboy, the public companies I've mentioned in this column are small -- small enough so that the attention this column generates could send their stocks temporarily higher. The key word here is "temporarily."
Typically, when an investment column moves a stock, it retraces. So that you don't wind up buying the spike and regretting it, I strongly urge you to avoid buying New Frontier Media above $6, Private Media above $3.30 and Rick's Cabaret above $15.50. It may pay to wait for pullbacks in both Private Media and Rick's Cabaret to even-lower levels, given that both stocks have advanced so much in the past few weeks.
At the time of publication, Michael Brush did not own or control shares of any companies mentioned in this column.
In an industry that counts on impulse buys, video on demand and faster cell-phone Internet access should be a boon for publicly traded adult-entertainment companies.
Technology has made pornography easier to produce and to distribute. By some estimates, pornography accounts for 40% of all Internet traffic and pay-TV sales. But, for shareholders at least, technology has yet to make pornography wildly profitable.
Playboy Enterprises (PLA, news, msgs) has seen its share price fall by 30% since the start of 2004, compared with a 39% gain in the S&P 500 Index ($INX). New Frontier Media (NOOF, news, msgs), a Boulder, Colo., business that distributes pornographic videos, trades lower than it did three years ago. And a smaller video distributor in Europe called Private Media (PRVT, news, msgs) trades where it did at the beginning of 2004, while the Russell 2000 Index ($RUT.X) of small-cap stocks has advanced more than 45% in the same time frame.
There are lots of reasons why: low-cost, high-quality digital-video cameras that have enabled small private companies; technology-enabled piracy of costlier content; and the abundance of free porn on the Internet.
But new technology appears to offer new hope for porn profits. Innovations such as video on demand (VOD) and faster cell-phone Internet access mean consumers will be better able to get the kind of porn they want, when and where they want it. That should boost sales for the publicly traded adult-entertainment companies supplying these channels.
On demand in demand Playboy, New Frontier Media and other adult-video providers have sold pay-per-view content for years through cable and satellite partners such as Time Warner Cable (TWC, news, msgs), Comcast (CMCSA, news, msgs) and EchoStar Communications (DISH, news, msgs). But this delivery system has had one big shortcoming: Because specific content is pre-scheduled, it isn't always available when a user wants it.
B
ut video on demand solves the problem, and consumers have responded. As New Frontier Media delicately put it in a recent filing, "Instant start times assure that an impulse demand results in a transaction, whereas with pay-per-view, the scheduled start time may not be synchronized to a viewer's requirements."
Private Media's chief operating officer, Peter Cohen, says adult entertainment "is particularly an impulse buy. So the on-demand functionality of VOD suits our content very well."
The numbers are impressive. Pay-television revenue overall was up just 1% at New Frontier Media in the first quarter, but VOD revenue jumped 10%. In the second quarter, overall pay-TV revenue at the company fell 17%, but VOD revenue was up 18% at New Frontier's biggest cable partner, and VOD sales were up at all of its top 10 cable partners. At Playboy, revenue weakness at the magazine and in pay-per-view TV has been offset by strength in VOD sales.
VOD offers other distinct advantages for adult-entertainment providers. VOD broadcasts can't be copied, so piracy is reduced. Also, it's easier to track consumer interests and behaviors with VOD.
"You get better and more specific actionable data about what works, and we have been responding to that," Playboy Enterprises Chief Executive Christie Hefner said in a recent conference call.
Cable providers have been rolling out VOD in the U.S. for several years. However, it has reached less than half the households that will be able to get it, so there is plenty of room for growth. In Europe, the potential is even bigger because cable operators there have lagged on offering VOD. Now, a new technology making up for the shortfall should help adult-entertainment companies deliver porn to viewers in the VOD format: Internet protocol television, or IPTV.
Undressing Playboy's planPlayboy magazine is changing its digital business strategy and giving away more content online. The Wall Street Journal's Lee Hawkins explains why.
"Europe is projected to be the fastest-growing territory for this platform," Private Media's Cohen says. "Everybody has ramped up their activity with these new digital platforms. I think we will see it grow quite quickly now."
Multimedia Research estimates the number of IPTV subscribers in Europe will grow to more than 27 million by 2011 from about 4 million last year. To catch the trend, Private Media is busy forging alliances with the major telecom providers across Europe who are rolling out VOD. The company says it already has access to 75% to 100% of the current and prospective IPTV viewers in France and Germany.
Porn on the go I'm not sure I really get this one because the screens are so small, but more consumers are watching porn on mobile phones, especially in Europe, where carriers are more likely to offer it.
"It's highly, highly popular," says Tim Clausen, who heads the wireless division at Private Media, which is based in Barcelona, Spain. "People watch entire movies for an hour and a half on their mobile phone." He says revenue from cell-phone-based porn doubled last year to $2.8 million.
Juniper Research analyst Windsor Holden estimates consumers around the world will spend $1.8 billion on cell-phone porn this year. He thinks that will grow to $4 billion by 2012. Strategy Analytics, another research firm, forecasts the mobile-adult-services market will reach $5 billion worldwide by 2010. Holden chalks it up in part to the cell phone's "anytime, anywhere" availability.
"The mobile phone affords the user of mobile adult services the opportunity for privacy, which many users may find attractive," Holden says.
Private Media says its content is available to more than 745 million cell-phone users in 33 countries via 78 operators, and it expects big growth. "We think that wireless will be an explosive top-line revenue opportunity for the simple reason that the cell phone is the ubiquitous device in the world," Cohen says.
Consumers aren't just looking at pictures, watching video and downloading naughty ring tones or video games. "Adoption is really rising rapidly in Europe, and one of the key drivers is video chat," says Holden. Several services provide one-on-one video chat with models for $3 a minute, he says, and the average length of the chat is six to seven minutes.
Compared with Europe, U.S. demand has lagged because high-speed data connections aren't as prevalent and carriers are more reluctant to offer cell-phone porn. But Cohen thinks the rollout of faster data service in the U.S. and better age-verification systems will change that. "As those two obstacles get worked out, we see enormous upside," he says.
Internet imitators In the Internet space, adult-entertainment companies are busy copying successful mainstream models like the auction site eBay (EBAY, news, msgs), the virtual world Second Life and even the social-networking site MySpace.
Rick's Cabaret International (RICK, news, msgs), which owns and operates adult nightclubs, has set up NaughtyBids, the eBay of adult material. The Web site, however, brings in only a small portion of overall revenue. Instead, the company is growing by acquiring and opening more clubs.
Red Light Center, run by a company called Utherverse Digital, offers an adult version of Second Life, one of the popular Internet-based worlds in which people interact through virtual identities known as avatars.
Video on MSN Money
Undressing Playboy's planPlayboy magazine is changing its digital business strategy and giving away more content online. The Wall Street Journal's Lee Hawkins explains why.
Zivity lets models post their pictures and accept payments from users who like what they see. They can also chat with models in a format that resembles MySpace.
If these last two are commercial successes, I'd expect the public companies to make an acquisition or, more likely, roll out similar products. Indeed, Private Media says it plans to launch Internet community and interactive services in the next three to six months.
A caveat With the exception of Playboy, the public companies I've mentioned in this column are small -- small enough so that the attention this column generates could send their stocks temporarily higher. The key word here is "temporarily."
Typically, when an investment column moves a stock, it retraces. So that you don't wind up buying the spike and regretting it, I strongly urge you to avoid buying New Frontier Media above $6, Private Media above $3.30 and Rick's Cabaret above $15.50. It may pay to wait for pullbacks in both Private Media and Rick's Cabaret to even-lower levels, given that both stocks have advanced so much in the past few weeks.
At the time of publication, Michael Brush did not own or control shares of any companies mentioned in this column.
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